Evan Medeiros warns US-China ties may snap back to rivalrysnap back to rivalry
Evan Medeiros said the current improvement in US-China ties could prove short-lived, in comments published by the South China Morning Post on May 24, 2026.
He argued that domestic US politics and possible shifts in Donald Trump’s view of Xi Jinping could quickly push Washington and Beijing back toward competition, which matters because the relationship shapes global security and trade.
Evan Medeiros perspective
Medeiros argues that the recent calm in US-China ties is fragile and depends on political conditions in Washington. He says a sharp return to rivalry could follow if US leaders conclude engagement is not working.
Washington political perspective
From this view, China policy is vulnerable to domestic campaign pressures and election results. Supporters of a tougher line may use Beijing as a political issue if relations worsen or deliver few gains.
Beijing perspective
Chinese leaders are likely to see stability as useful only if Washington does not treat cooperation as temporary. They may read any renewed pressure from the United States as proof that rivalry remains the baseline.
- Evan Medeiros previously served on the US National Security Council during Barack Obama’s presidency.
- The Chicago Council on Global Affairs is a long-running foreign policy think tank based in Chicago.
- US-China relations influence everything from semiconductor supply chains to military planning in the Indo-Pacific.
US-China Indo-Pacific Rivalry
China and Taiwan coast guard vessels have repeatedly faced off near the Pratas Islands, with the latest standoff showing how small maritime incidents around Taiwan can quickly become confrontations.[1][5] The episode adds to wider U.S.-China military tension across the Indo-Pacific, where Beijing is expanding patrols and Washington is reinforcing regional deterrence.[2][3] The rivalry now centers on preventing miscalculation around Taiwan, the South China Sea, and nearby sea lanes.[1][3][5] It also shapes defense planning by Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, and the United States as all sides weigh coercion, sovereignty claims, and the risk of escalation.[2][3]
24 May, 07:39 AM
Taiwan and China coast guards face off near Pratas islands1 January
The United States adopts a sharper great-power competition strategy focused on China
