Experts doubt trade wins will suffice for Xi-Trump summit in MayXi-Trump summit in May
Experts express skepticism that limited trade achievements alone will advance the upcoming Xi-Trump summit scheduled for May. They anticipate the creation of working groups to address ongoing issues rather than immediate breakthroughs, as highlighted in analyses from outlets like the South China Morning Post. A prior meeting in Busan, South Korea, in October 2025 produced modest tariff reductions and soybean purchase agreements, but deeper challenges persist.
This summit holds potential to ease US-China trade tensions affecting global supply chains and economies, yet Taiwan arms sales and technology restrictions complicate progress. Beijing seeks commitments on Taiwan and eased tech controls, while Washington prioritizes strategic concerns. Outcomes could influence international trade stability and bilateral security dynamics.
US Perspective
Analysts view trade concessions like soybean purchases as short-term relief for US farmers amid tariff pressures. They rate recent meetings highly but stress the need to address broader security and technology issues beyond trade. Expectations remain cautious for the May summit, focusing on working groups rather than grand bargains.
Chinese Perspective
Beijing sees prior agreements as stabilizing exports and gaining leverage over US economic vulnerabilities. It prioritizes resolving Taiwan arms sales, entity list sanctions, and tech restrictions while offering more purchases of US goods. Trade issues rank secondary to strategic concerns like self-constraint on US-Taiwan relations.
- The Taiwan Strait spans 110 miles, channeling over half of global container shipping as a vital trade artery.
- China refines 90% of the world's rare earth elements, crucial for EVs and smartphones.
- The 2020 Phase One deal aimed for $200 billion in Chinese purchases of U.S. goods but missed targets by 40%.
US-China Military Escalation Indo-Pacific
The United States conducted its first operational firing of the Typhon mid-range missile system from the Philippines on May 5, 2026, during joint exercises with Manila, Japan, Australia, France, Canada, and New Zealand. The Tomahawk cruise missile traveled over 600 kilometers from Leyte to strike a target in Nueva Ecija, demonstrating long-range strike capability that can reach the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and parts of mainland China. China condemned the deployment as provocative and responded with its own naval drills, while tensions escalated further when Taiwan's coast guard expelled a Chinese research vessel suspected of conducting underwater surveillance near the island.
